“Justifying” The Bounce
By Jennifer Thibodeaux Bourque and Michael – Louis Ingram, Editor – in – Chief
LAFAYETTE, LA and PHILADELPHIA, PA (www.basnnewsroom.com) Out of a full plate of twenty, we are down to a “light snack” of eight.
The 143rd Edition of The Preakness Stakes, second jewel in the Triple Crown, is in effect, evoking two of the oldest adages in racing: “Horse for the Course” and “Bop in the Slop.”
Although the premise is some Hosses enjoy certain tracks and surfaces, the science of how certain pedigrees move up in prominence as the track turns (wet) is integral to success at the betting window, as our Bloodlines Babe Jenny, explains:
“Lone Sailor’s pedigree is already impressive enough on dirt ; but when the track is wet, forget it! He has over fifty years of back class with successful mudders like Dixieland Band, Bold Reasoning, Storm Bird and Alydar.
“He also has Seattle Slew, Storm Cat and Gone West in him – versatile horses comfortable on grass and dirt; but his blood ties to A.P. Indy also mean he not only handles the slop, he can bop on it! A.P. Indy and his kin can run all day at any distance – that’s why Lone Sailor is my long shot special.”
Less ‘Bounce’ to the Ounce
A ‘bounce’ is how a hoss reacts after an effort on the track. Justify (a 1/2 favorite) ran a suicide :45 half in the Kentucky Derby, yet carried his speed to a two length win without so much as a drop of mud on his nose!
After an effort like that, however, some of those equine athletes can lose significant Hoss Power if they come back too early. Another reason why the Triple Crown is a true Test of Champions is the grind a Hoss has to endure to be spoken of in greatness as the best of the best.
While it seems sprinters may be more inclined to bounce because of that explosion of energy, an off track can soften the bounce if that pedigree enjoys it. Seeing the way Justify ate up the mud, it would be hard to go against him. “I’d put him in my Top Three for sure,” says Jenny. I doubt an eight horse field would introduce any trip problems, and he’s running from the outside post (#7). So he if gets a clean trip, it will be about conditioning.”
The Race / The Play
This race is shaping as Justify versus the Ortiz Brothers. While Lone Sailor (pp#2) has Irad Ortiz Jr. up, Derby place finisher Good Magic (pp#5) has Jose Ortiz up and ready for another crack at Justify. Closers don’t seem to bounce as harshly as stalkers or front runners, so we may see these three in it down the stretch.
The Ortiz brothers have dominated the New York area tracks for a couple years now, so trainers Tom Amoss and Chad Brown are in good hands.
As to the play, we’ll keep it simple:
A $2 superfecta with Justify (#7) Lone Sailor (#2) Good Magic (#5) and the D. Wayne Lukas horses Sporting Chance (#3) and Bravaso (#8) on the back end. Flip – flop #2 and #5 for a second bet.
Good luck – and when you see your long shot steaming down the track and kicking up mud, scream at the top of your lungs:
“WORK THAT NOBLE BEAST!”
always outnumbered – never outgunned.
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