Paddock to Post – Triple Crown Edition: Backstretch…or Back Broke?

Backstretch…or Back Broke?

By Jennifer Thibodeaux Bourque and Michael – Louis Ingram, Editor – in – Chief

BASN NEWSROOM

 

LAFAYETTE, LA and PHILADELPHIA, PA (www.basnnewsroom.com) Justify, having survived the first true challenge on winning The Preakness by surviving a bounce effort, must now steel himself for the Test of Champions – The Belmont Stakes; and the infamous back stretch which has crushed the dreams of many a would be Triple Crown winner.

 

 

Since 1932, 23 hosses had the crown wrested from them as they attempted to complete the career trifecta. Noble Beasts like Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince, Spectacular Bid, Sunday Silence (my favorite hoss), Charismatic, Smarty Jones – all coming up short largely due to that devilish back stretch of almost 1100 feet.

So the question is…will Justify do just that in solidifying his place in history as one of the Equine Immortals…or will history catch up to him before the wire?

As our bloodines expert Jenny touts this race, she believes Brazos has a shot but he won’t pay that big a price (“I have a soft spot for Calumet Farm Hosses,”) she confesses.

The one value play we both seem to like is the long shot Tenfold. “He’s got Mr. Prospector – front and back,” says Jenny, “loaded with back class. And he’s a Curlin hoss with Tapit on his momma’s side; that means the distance is no problem. Add to that he’s lightly raced may make this race his moment in the sun if he can get the trip.”

 

THE PLAY

 

Jusify will get Post 1, and it will be important that he get clear early before other hosses can jam him in. Jockey Mike Smith has done a great job in keeping him out of trouble; that could mean having to control the race from the front. At a mile and a half, Justify can’t afford to run a 23 quarter /47 half kinda race because I believe he will get cooked late if he does. By contrast, if he can get a 49 second half mile, get ready for greatness.

We’re gonna go after him with Tenfold (#7) because we believe he can win – so we’ll do a #1#7/#1 #7 trifecta wheel; a #1 – all – #7  and #7 – all – #1 trifecta wheel; with a 50 cent superfecta partial of #1 #7 with #1 #7, with Bravaso #3, the #5 Restoring Hope and #8 Vino Rosso (Curlin’s ‘brother’) with all on the back end.

 

Total Investment: $60 

Good luck – and when you see History charging down the backstretch make sure you scream at the top of your lungs:

 

WORK THAT NOBLE BEAST!!

 

basneditor@basnnewsroom.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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